Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 17.699638 21.419386 25.548339 30.446274 36.071638 42.303803 49.702871
2025-04-06 12.845238 17.830367 23.960549 31.938869 41.924060 53.879197 69.133930
2025-04-13 8.761873 13.714181 20.359369 29.688202 42.178064 58.037710 79.374721
2025-04-20 6.969552 12.050802 19.368421 30.268054 45.626608 65.994039 94.462159
2025-04-27 5.751360 10.886159 18.761280 31.107964 49.272548 74.240456 110.237106
2025-05-04 4.879315 10.042328 18.426572 32.181495 53.188726 82.958734 127.008813
2025-05-11 4.108943 9.185016 17.897316 32.817139 56.407611 90.783144 142.853900
2025-05-18 3.350371 8.168255 16.923129 32.578210 58.194710 96.549547 155.973063
2025-05-25 2.633554 7.051922 15.581135 31.530052 58.551451 100.122757 165.980964
2025-06-01 2.147929 6.285968 14.734987 31.187612 59.939653 105.240133 178.408689
2025-06-08 1.660521 5.377268 13.455940 29.897730 59.599565 107.588636 186.683049
2025-06-15 1.474619 5.142020 13.478750 30.979792 63.327708 116.497416 205.337693
2025-06-22 1.162194 4.519690 12.661863 30.519983 64.597464 121.949861 219.584939
2025-06-29 1.027308 4.352493 12.826783 32.035499 69.565340 133.829644 244.722726
2025-07-06 0.712221 3.504469 11.246717 29.780519 67.410257 133.662355 250.478363
2025-07-13 0.594586 3.247440 11.035273 30.361894 70.590860 142.690609 271.567305
2025-07-20 0.506478 3.056560 10.952381 31.203894 74.317054 152.825628 294.873031
2025-07-27 0.439389 2.916336 10.975799 32.280075 78.565775 164.061966 320.434412
2025-08-03 0.369598 2.726855 10.821211 32.917281 81.962604 173.916344 344.000070
2025-08-10 0.290850 2.443888 10.328257 32.677765 83.529295 180.510854 362.203010
2025-08-17 0.212846 2.098681 9.552721 31.627026 83.293816 183.750858 374.675542
2025-08-24 0.163487 1.869031 9.085047 31.283740 84.517458 189.730608 392.127824
2025-08-31 0.113503 1.574100 8.303238 29.990652 83.539485 191.461497 402.061617